I believe one of the commentators had it right. NK wants both the aid AND the nukes. Problem is no one is going to accept that so we get a lovely display of their nuclear capability ala underground test.
It is impossible to figure out what they want to do.
Btw, another interesting article...
N. Korean gambit may force China's hand
by Jonathan Eyal - 02 Sept 2003
straitstimes.asia1.com.sg
Beijing must push Pyongyang to return to the nuclear talks or stay silent and watch the diplomatic process disintegrate
LONDON - North Korea's sudden decision to abandon any further nuclear talks with the United States and its immediate neighbours can be interpreted as a significant and potentially dangerous escalation in the crisis.
In all probabilities, the bewildering twists in the North's stance are not directed at the US at all, but rather at China, the country which has tried to broker a deal on the Korean peninsula and which now finds its task harder than ever.
Ever since the latest nuclear crisis erupted last October, Beijing has tried to perform a highly intricate diplomatic pirouette.
On the one hand, it is determined to continue propping up Pyongyang.
But at the same time, it also wants to be useful to the Americans. If its mediation effort bears fruit, China's long-held aspiration to become the pre-eminent Asian power will be immeasurably enhanced.
So, the Chinese tactic has been to put just enough pressure on North Korea to extract some concessions, but not too much so as not to drive it to the brink of desperation.
The fact that the North Koreans did go to the negotiating table last week was considered by the Chinese as an achievement in itself.
And, from a different perspective, the Americans have also benefited.
Their long-standing position is that North Korea's nuclear programme is a challenge to the security of the entire region, rather than just a bilateral dispute between Washington and Pyongyang, as North Korea claims.
The staging of a conference on Chinese soil, at which not only Japan and South Korea, but also Russia, took part, vindicated the US position.
The snag is that neither the Chinese nor the Americans noticed just how diplomatically cornered North Korea felt during last week's talks.
Pyongyang's delegates first tried to divide the negotiators around the table by heaping praise on the Russians and by agreeing to talk about the fate of Japanese citizens kidnapped previously by agents of the Pyongyang government.
Their gamble failed: Despite their presence at the talking table, the Russians had zero influence, while the Japanese did, but were hardly likely to be swayed by North Korea's overtures.
So, Pyongyang moved to another tactic: That of declaring at the end of the negotiations that it is already a nuclear power and that it will prove this soon, perhaps by testing a missile delivery system.
Yet again, this tactic of upping the stakes in the hope of being taken seriously fell flat. The North Koreans have made such explicit threats before and the US has learnt to ignore them.
Washington believes the Chinese will never allow such an escalation and that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il knows this only too well.
It was therefore entirely predictable that, after taking stock of the proceedings, the North Koreans decided to escalate the dispute even further, by repudiating the agreement to even continue with the current talks.
The guess must be that this is another North Korean gamble, made easier by Pyongyang's belief that it has some time on its hands.
With Iraq still in a crisis and the US military now beginning to feel the pains of overstretch, America cannot afford another big military confrontation, at least not until after the presidential election in November next year.
Washington's strategy is, therefore, to keep the discussions going while engaging the countries of the region.
China, however, will grow increasingly desperate to have a deal before the next US elections because it knows that if no concrete results are forthcoming, any new American president will be tempted to consider military options.
The North Koreans hope to benefit from this disparity between the timetable of the Americans and the Chinese.
Their evident desire is to tell Beijing that they may return to the negotiating table, but only under a different format, and only after the Chinese put pressure on the Americans to make further concessions.
If this is, indeed, the North Korean tactic, it remains a strategy fraught with dangers.
For, although the Americans may be content to see the diplomatic game continue with its current fits and starts, they are not sitting idle.
Instead, they are pushing a new Proliferation Security Initiative, an effort designed to interdict ships on the high seas if these are deemed to include material which may be used in the production of weapons of mass destruction.
Its aim is evident enough: Tighten the noose around North Korea even as the diplomatic talks continue.
A fresh round of sea-based exercises will take place off Australia this month.
So, the potential for unexpected flare-ups in the crisis is there not only from North Korea, but also from America's future actions.
The country now facing a really serious dilemma is China.
In the weeks to come, Beijing will have to decide whether to intensify the pressure on Pyongyang - perhaps by threatening yet again economic sanctions as it has briefly done a few months ago - or remain silent and see the entire diplomatic process disintegrate.
It is a choice which Beijing never wanted to face. |
