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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners
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To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (18062)9/3/2003 8:46:34 AM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (1) of 57684
 
Lizzie:

I'm just getting more and more cautious in this market. Hope I'm wrong but IMO risk has increased in this market environment. While I expect the economy to be booming next year I also expect a pretty good retrenchment in the markets.

I just wonder what the trigger will be.
Will it be higher energy prices this winter?
Will it be higher interest rates?
(both impacting the consumer and offsetting gov't. stimilus)
Will it be a warning from IBM (this was the 87 trigger and they still are a bell weather for tech).
Will it be a terrorist event?
Will it be a natural CAT (Fabian a Category 4 looks to be missing the east coast)?

It won't be valuations alone (i.e. intc @ 61 times next yrs. earnings) but a high valuation environment increases the risk.
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