Michael, You ask a lot of good questions - let me make a couple of comments and then I will finish off with a table with 2 different sorts.
First of all, in general, the stocks within the Group tend to move up and down together. The weak, usually smaller stocks, move the least amount, the next is the Generals in the Group that move well to the upside, but are limited because of their size, and the final group is the "medium size" stocks with good technology that really move, both on the upside and downside I might add.
I put the following table together, portions of which I have posted several times before to illustrate the point. The first 3 columns in the table show the performance of the Group from the lows set on 10/8/98 and their respective high prices set in 2000. Two stocks at the top jump out at you, PHTN with a 3917 percent gain and LTXX with a 3736 percent gain. TER, AMAT, NVLS and KLAC, the 4 stocks in the Group that are part of the SOX were up 1307, 928, 858, and 791 percent respectively. Tremendous performance but pretty puny compared to PHTN and LTXX.
Now lets go to the last 3 columns. Note that while the sort is not in the last column, since the low set on 10/9/02 and comparing to last Friday's close, PHTN and LTXX are clearly in 1st place again with gains of 1268 and 1065 percent respectively. Based on past performance during the 98 to 00 runup, and the fact that they are again in 1st place now during the most recent runup, I would think they may very well wind up at the top again at the end of this bubble. Also, by the way, we are well on our way to a new bubble top as the percentage gains since October show - still have a ways to go, but now the Group is gaining a full head of steam. Like Needham said this morning as reported by Briefing.com
<With cycle-to-cycle growth, semiconductor equipment stocks could reasonably be expected to yield returns of 50%to 100% or more over the next 18 to 24 months.>
Anyway, here is the table, first sorted by the 3rd column and then sorted by the last column.
- 2000
- 10/08/98 HIGHEST 10/9/02 08/29/03
- CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT
SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE PRICE PRICE CHANGE
PHTN 2.25 90.38 3917 2.38 32.57 1268
LTXX 1.31 50.25 3736 1.28 14.91 1065
ASYT 3.13 63.88 1941 3.10 14.00 352
LRCX 2.93 55.56 1796 3.30 25.61 675
MTSN 2.75 49.13 1687 2.75 6.00 118
CMOS 5.00 74.59 1392 5.03 11.49 128
TER* 7.82 110.00 1307 9.00 17.83 98
ASML 4.38 50.05 1043 4.54 15.77 247
BRKS 8.38 89.69 970 8.63 24.45 183
AMAT* 5.59 57.44 928 11.82 21.63 83
CYMI 6.50 65.25 904 8.00 45.77 472
NVLS* 7.30 69.94 858 7.69 39.96 420
HELX 7.88 75.38 857 8.63 18.36 113
SMTL 2.57 23.69 822 2.50 8.91 256
KLAC* 10.94 97.44 791 12.50 59.45 376
COHU 6.75 59.50 781 7.69 22.10 187
KLIC 5.19 43.00 729 5.78 11.74 103
WFR 3.63 23.75 554 3.50 12.98 271
EGLS 7.94 43.44 447 9.25 2.44 -74
FSII 4.25 23.13 444 4.63 4.40 -5
VECO 21.63 115.50 434 24.75 21.35 -14
ATMI 11.50 60.00 422 11.38 27.95 146
PLAB 9.50 45.13 375 11.00 24.28 121
DPMI 17.88 78.81 341 19.31 25.61 33
UTEK 13.56 23.50 73 15.38 29.32 91
TOTALS 180.56 1534.31 750 203.81 538.88 164
SOX-X 189.90 1332.73 602 200.80 456.06 127
COMPQX1419.12 5048.85 256 1492.49 1810.45 21
* STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX
- 2000
- 10/08/98 HIGHEST 10/9/02 8/29/03
- CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT
SYMBOL PRICE PRICE CHANGE PRICE PRICE CHANGE
PHTN 2.25 90.38 3917 2.38 32.57 1268
LTXX 1.31 50.25 3736 1.28 14.91 1065
LRCX 2.93 55.56 1796 3.30 25.61 675
CYMI 6.50 65.25 904 8.00 45.77 472
NVLS* 7.30 69.94 858 7.69 39.96 420
KLAC* 10.94 97.44 791 12.50 59.45 376
ASYT 3.13 63.88 1941 3.10 14.00 352
WFR 3.63 23.75 554 3.50 12.98 271
SMTL 2.57 23.69 822 2.50 8.91 256
ASML 4.38 50.05 1043 4.54 15.77 247
COHU 6.75 59.50 781 7.69 22.10 187
BRKS 8.38 89.69 970 8.63 24.45 183
ATMI 11.50 60.00 422 11.38 27.95 146
CMOS 5.00 74.59 1392 5.03 11.49 128
PLAB 9.50 45.13 375 11.00 24.28 121
MTSN 2.75 49.13 1687 2.75 6.00 118
HELX 7.88 75.38 857 8.63 18.36 113
KLIC 5.19 43.00 729 5.78 11.74 103
TER* 7.82 110.00 1307 9.00 17.83 98
UTEK 13.56 23.50 73 15.38 29.32 91
AMAT* 5.59 57.44 928 11.82 21.63 83
DPMI 17.88 78.81 341 19.31 25.61 33
FSII 4.25 23.13 444 4.63 4.40 -5
VECO 21.63 115.50 434 24.75 21.35 -14
EGLS 7.94 43.44 447 9.25 2.44 -74
TOTALS 180.56 1538.43 752 203.81 538.88 164
SOX-X 189.90 1332.73 602 200.80 456.06 127
COMPQX1419.12 5048.85 256 1492.49 1810.45 21
* STOCKS INCLUDED IN SOX INDEX
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