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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.81+2.7%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: The Ox who wrote (11408)9/3/2003 7:20:30 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (1) of 95617
 
RE: "For the sake of discussion..."

1. We haven't had a real upcycle since 1995. The move that started in November 1996 was abruptly terminated by the "Asian Flu" and the move that started in October 1998 was distorted and shortened by the bubble.

2. I believe that we are moving through the bubble aftermath and industry expansion has been and will remain cautious until end markets return to more robust growth. I believe that 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2006, 2007, 2008 will look like "normal" ~3 year up cycles.

3. I believe that at the top, the greatest appreciation from here will be made by the top tier. I use "here" because it removes the volatility about the bottom. I choose the top tier because I believe they have the greatest ability to increase market share and penetrate new markets while maintaining high margins.
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