Hi Jay,
Are you implicitly assuming that:
(a) offshore investors will not have much influence over the US financial markets, and
You mean the dollar will weaken, therefore off-shore investors will lose interest in dollar-denominated assets (and buy gold) unless we give them better rates (therefore inflation, which favors higher POG), etc? I don't dismiss that thought in the long run, but it won't play between now and the '04 election, I think.
(b) offshore investors think as J6P-average does.
That wasn't in my thoughts.
BTW, I think NEM at 39 is a bargain, at 32 is a steal, and at 25 is an almost impossibility
Labor Day is past and the market seems to be confirming my view. J6P and his agents are now likely to start earnestly pumping money into the market, especially once we get past 9/11/03. Last week's high of 39+ in the NEM weekly chart was a weak high: divergent in volume and MACD, cowed by a great deal of congestive price resistance around 40. A drop to 32 is almost imminent (he said meaningfully). 25 would surprise me, since the major trendline support is now two points higher than it was in March, when it was near 25.
I do think NEM's the place to be to observe the running of the POG. I won't be far away.
ig |
