China's mobile statistics in doubt, Motorola still China's top vendor according to insider figures
04.09.2003 08:48:00 GMT
Shanghai. (Interfax-China) - Market researchers have been increasingly puzzled by the mobile phone sales figures released in China by different sources. Statistics from the Ministry of Information Industry (MII), which ought to be most authoritative, are also frequently questioned by market analysts and even mobile phone vendors themselves. Moreover, as the MII does not release monthly figures to the public, many research houses are doing their own estimates, bringing further confusion to the handset sales figures.
A striking example of the confusion is, according to MII figures, Ningbo Bird - which ranks the top on handset sales among all vendors in the first half of this year with a market share of 15.01%, followed by Motorola (14.21%), TCL (11.64%) and Nokia (9.72%), according to the latest release. However, another version of the MII's analysis Interfax obtained through an internal source shows that Motorola remains in its first position with a market share around 20%, followed by Nokia with 19%. The market share of Bird is only 7%.
"The sales figures for Bird handsets could be further confused by it being the only handset vendor to own an exclusive distribution network in China," an analyst pointed out.
An Interfax source within MII said that this situation has arisen due to different ways of compiling the statistics. There are two major ways for the MII to compile its handset figures. One method is to ask mobile phone vendors to fill statistical forms every month, which is required by the current Chinese law. The results from this compilation is widely reported, via official release through Xinhua and other official news sources. The sales figures of a mobile phone vendor could be exaggerated if it reports a higher volume to the MII.
The other method used to compile mobile handset data is to calculate the number of network access licenses MII issues to mobile phone vendors (one mobile phone needs one network access license before it can be sold). By this first hand method there is less likelihood of exaggeration. There is the potential for inaccuracy if a vendor resells the network access licenses on to other vendors, said the MII source, but these sales figures are revised by MII. This internal use report is published exclusively by Interfax on a monthly basis.
In addition, complaints are rising on the MII figures because they do not reflect real market sales. The MII handset sales figures include all handsets vendors sell to distribution channels, which means the actual sales volume is lower as part of the handsets sold to channels are still inventory and have not yet been bought by end users. It is estimated that about 20 mln handsets are dormant inventory at present, but they have been counted into the sales figures by the MII.
What further puzzles the market is various research houses have also released their own estimates. The MII claims a 55.28% market share for domestic brands, but a Beijing-based research firm told Interfax the real market share of domestic brands, according to their research, is only around 30%.
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