<<All of us know Patron started the RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE CRASH INDEX board. He stopped being short about 6 months ago as I remember.>>
Yeah, and I'm pretty proud of that board. There's a great variety of views exchanged about real estate in general, by bulls and bears alike. I started shorting homies right around the time I started that board. covered the week after 9/11 after a nice move down. I reshorted about 4 months later and covered most of 'em early this year. Not the most superb trades I ever made, but profitable overall. As far as tech goes, I've was short that trash big time beginning in March, 2000 and made a ton (especially in AMZN). Any of the longterm posters on this board will verify that (and if you wanna see for yourself, look back at the "All Clowns Must Be Destroyed" thread posts from March through December 2000). If you hate tech, hey, all the more power to you as far as I'm concerned.
Is PEG the only indicator that matters (especially in a cyclical sector like homebuilding)? Ummmm, no. Study the PEG's of drillers (and of the builders in any other cycle prior to this one) and you'll see that PE's bottom as the sector rolls over. That's not to say it's necessarily the best moment to short them, but PE doesn't mean everything (especially if the company isn't paying out their earnings to shareholders in dividends).
FWIW, I was LONG MHO back at that same time (2000), and closed it out too soon but did OK. Do the homies make money? Sure (for now), but they are still heavily levered to interest rates and are vulnerable. Are AMZN, AOL or CSCO even remotely close to reasonably valued? Of course not. Are employee stock options that aren't expensed fair to share holders? Of course not.
Since you're "trying to keep this civil" I won't go into some of the trades YOU've made that haven't worked out. It's just part of the game, no one bats 1.000, c'est la vie. |
