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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.81+2.7%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST

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To: C_Johnson who wrote (11382)9/5/2003 8:18:07 AM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (1) of 95617
 
Hi Carl,

>> What I am debating in my head is whether or not increasing earnings and revenues will be the catalyst to drive the stocks significantly higher.

This is a late reply, and maybe by now the subject is moot. But the question is how much room there is on the upside ?

Well, look at the reaction of NSM stock price to mildly higher revenue and margins. Up 10%. And also look at the reaction to Intel's re-iteration of higher projected rev and margins. Obviously there is a lot of headroom - provided the positive economic backdrop continues.
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I'm looking at these numbers from your post:

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First Call Consensus Estimates - Cumulative



CY 2003 Estimates
Q1 Q2 Delta % Chg
Semiconductors $8.85 $8.59 ($0.26) -3%
Cap Equipment $0.53 ($0.58) ($1.12) -210%

CY 2004 Estimates
Q1 Q2 Delta% Chg
Semiconductors $16.51 $16.26 ($0.25) -2%
Cap Equipment $14.01 $13.87 ($0.15) -1%

***********

Isn't that saying that a significant profit increase is expected from CY 2003 Q1 to CY 2004 Q1 (in both Semiconductors and Cap Ex) ? Am I misreading this table ?

Sarmad
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