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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 173.20-3.3%3:59 PM EST
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To: slacker711 who wrote (36829)9/5/2003 10:58:11 AM
From: Jim Mullens  Read Replies (1) of 196536
 
Slacker, your further insight on the competition’s chipsets and the GSM-WCDMA handover issue is appreciated and makes sense in light of TT remarks at the Cowen event.

As I recall, TT stated words to the effect that most of the handset issues (battery life, etc) have been worked out and the remaining issues are primarily network based. He mentioned VOD in particular and that they had many infrastructure providers and thus IOT was an ongoing activity.

TT also stated that the Q sees WCDMA handset sales at less than 10M units in 2004 and stated that DoCoMo’s WCDMA target is 6M subs by March of 2005. I believe you recently posted an SSB analyst’s estimate for DoCoMo Foma subs reflecting 14.6M by March of 2005 and 2.9M by March of 2004. Extrapolating the March ’05 estimate (14.6M) backward to Dec 2004 could yield between 11 – 12M subs by CY 2004 ye (considerably higher than DoCoMo’s target). I also recall DoCoMo stating that they are targeting 50% of their subs (22M of 44M) being WCDMA within two to three years.

In light of the above, do you feel that 10M WCDMA handset sales in 2004 may be on the light side?

jim
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