Gov't approves energy strategy up to 2020
The Russian government has approved the country's Energy Strategy up to 2020. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov signed a corresponding decree, according to the Government Information Department.
The Russian Energy Ministry, the Economy Ministry, the Atomic Ministry and the Natural Resources Ministry have been commissioned to oversee the implementation of programs envisaged by the Energy Strategy, and to submit corresponding reports to the government in the first quarter of every year.
Within the framework of preparing a plan of the government’s actions in implementing the guidelines of the country’s social and economic development in the period up to 2020, the Economy Ministry and the Energy Ministry have been commissioned to implement measures envisaged by the Energy Strategy. Federal and regional executive agencies should conform with the Energy Strategy in developing and implementing the measures of state control in the sphere of the fuel and energy sector, as well as in the development of regional energy strategy.
The Energy Strategy is based on a moderate GDP growth forecast – 2.5 times compared with 2000, and 3.3 times under an optimistic scenario. The strategy envisages various scenarios for the development of the fuel and energy sector as a whole. That is why, the GDP growth forecast is based on both moderate and optimistic scenarios. According to the forecast, the energy intensity of the GDP might drop 2-2.5 times by 2020.
In particular, the Energy Strategy proposes that Russia’s oil output could amount to 450m tons of oil a year by 2010, according to the moderate scenario, and it might total 520m tons a year under the optimistic scenario. According to the Energy Strategy, the production of natural and associated gas will rise to 633bn cubic meters a year by 2010, according to the moderate forecast, and it could increase to 665bn cubic meters a year under the optimistic scenario. Russia’s steady gas output could fluctuate between 680 and 730bn cubic meters a year in the period up to 2020. Domestic gas prices might reach $35-39 per 1,000 cubic meters in the period up to 2006, and they are projected at $46-49 per 1,000 cubic meters in the period up to 2020.
The document also defines two main directions of oil exports – northern and north-western directions, with a priority given to the Baltic Pipeline System (its capacity is 50m tons a year). In addition, the Strategy outlines the route across the Kola Peninsula. In the European direction, it is the Druzhba-Adria pipeline with an estimated capacity of 15m tons a year. The Black Sea direction is reflected in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, with a throughput of up to 60m tons a year. The document also envisages the construction of the Angarsk-Nakhodka pipeline (the capacity is about 50m tons a year), with a branch to Daqing, with a capacity of up to 30m tons a year. Russian oil exports in 2010 are projected at 248-278m tons a year.
According to the Energy Strategy, energy consumption will rise by 40percent by 2020. Electricity generation will increase by 30-50 percent by 2010, to 1015bn kWh to 1070bn kWh a year. By 2020, electricity production will reach 1215bn kWh, according to the moderate scenario, and it will rise to 1365bn kWh under the optimistic forecast. The share of gas in the production of energy resources will drop from 50 percent to 40 percent, and the share of coal will rise by 2 percent. The share of atomic energy in the Russian energy system is expected to rise from 15 percent to 19.5 percent by 2020.
Investment in Russia’s fuel and energy sector within the framework of the Energy Strategy up to 2020 will total $570bn to $620bn. The main part of the investments will be made by successfully operating companies in all sectors of the economy. Part of the investments will be borrowed funds. The government will only act as an investors in projects of strategic importance. |
