When you invest in PMCS, AMCC, etc., you must be able to describe why INTC or someone else will not be able to replace them in their markets and why competition in those market will not be based solely on price, i.e. a commodity.
I haven't done a competitive analysis, but I might lower the buyer's burden a notch by questioning INTC's omnipotence. If INTC possessed such a power, you would simply buy INTC and be done with it. Coexistence with an 800 lb gorilla is generally possible as long as you are not another gorilla or seen as a threat. INTC is not MSFT.
As for the second issue, most markets tend to resemble commodities as they mature and products are standardized to match consumer preferences. The key is innovation and product differentiation. Over time it will be possible to determine whether AMCC and PMCS have demonstrated their ability to survive in a jungle by carving out an entrenched niche, or whether they were simply lucky enough to temporarily inhabit an expanding market without a predator. Time will tell and you are probably wise to wait a decade and know, rather than speculate on what you cannot know.
The hard part is to figure out what the broadband medium will be, wireless, fiber optic, etc
Fot the immediate future, it will be sufficient to assume it will be all of the above, plus copper, cable and satellite. |
