Mish;( and all ) A short course in what I now call BIG FOOT CHARTING
the anomaly I'm about to point at is caused by money flow..
mostly into/out of INDEX TRACKING FUNDS..
when things get bullish the big caps take off as the weighted
indexes cause the funds to have put more into the big caps
when money flows out the funds have to sell more of the
big caps. Well enough of that now for the charts.
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1
look at the long term NDX 100 to Nasdaq
Easy to see how she went up faster, then dropped
faster..
finance.yahoo.com^NDX&t=my&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=e50,e10,e50,e20&a=fs,vm,w14,r5&c=^IXIC
2
the 5 yr also bears this out..
finance.yahoo.com^ndx&t=5y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=e50,e10,e50,e20&a=fs,vm,w14,r5&c=^IXIC
Now don't get bored..
3:
The 2 yr is about the same but that will change when we go to the
1 year
finance.yahoo.com^NDX&t=2y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=e50,e10,e50,e20&a=fs,vm,w14,r5&c=^IXIC
4
Now here we are at the rally start..with the 1 yr
and it's easy to see how the NDX 100 jumped
ahead of the nasdaq.
finance.yahoo.com^NDX&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=e50,e10,e50,e20&a=fs,vm,w14,r5&c=^IXIC
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NOW for the RUB..to stay bullish the more liquid stocks
need to maintain a lead ( in general )..sure some hi beta
stuff will take off..but all in all the NDX 100 needs to
stay ahead of the nasdaq..
BUT as we drop to the 6 mo chart
we see the NDX 100 dropping behind..
finance.yahoo.com^NDX&t=1y&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=e50,e10,e50,e20&a=fs,vm,w14,r5&c=^IXIC
and tahts not real bullish.
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3 mo is also showing some weakness..
finance.yahoo.com^NDX&t=3m&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=e50,e10,e50,e20&a=fs,vm,w14,r5&c=^IXIC
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And as of last WED..
finance.yahoo.com^NDX&t=5d&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=e50,e10,e50,e20&a=fs,vm,w14,r5&c=^IXIC
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AND when I see taht there is no way I'm going long..
BIg foot has been good to me..and while it may be a new
ball game I would not bet on it. The trouble with Big foot is
it may be to simple for most people , as most people like to have
everything complicated.
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As for shorts getting killed as some people have been saying,
well they don't much about being short..
I've been short 3 times since July and I have made more
than I lost.
This market looks like it has set up a bull trap.
Jim
PS with this last rally I've gone almost
90% cash..and now only have 4 long positions
and being I've got covered calls out on them
which are all in the money now and I don't want to buy
the calls back.
I may let them ride, I can short enough
to offset any drop in them, but any way I bought em
cheap & I kinda doubt they will now drop below my call out
level.
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2 of them will end in NOV..
the other 2 I sold long term
leaps..like I'm in CRUS
at 1.70 cost..and I now hold a CIEN
bull spead for 2005 2 1/2 to 5..at a cost of
.23 cents..<g>
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Well I hold one other but got it so cheap I
don't want to talk about it...it's a dividend
paying stock and I don't want them to call
it. <G> |
