Debate's Surprise: Dean Emerges Unbloodied
Taking On Front-Runner Is A Political Art Unto Itself
washingtonpost.com
By Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, September 7, 2003; Page A05
If there was a surprise in the first Democratic presidential debate of the fall season in New Mexico last Thursday, it was that former Vermont governor Howard Dean spent so little time having to fend off attacks from his rivals.
Dean arrived in Albuquerque braced for attack. "I'm putting on my body armor," he joked before the debate, seeming to relish the prospect of being the target. His advisers assumed that several candidates, particularly Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) and Rep. Richard A. Gephardt (Mo.), would use the forum to begin to try to slow his surge in New Hampshire and Iowa, where he threatens them.
Instead, it was Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (Conn.), the supposed nice guy in the Democratic field, who again played the role of aggressor against Dean, as he has done in other debates. Rep. Dennis J. Kucinich (Ohio) joined in the attack, but Gephardt and Kerry stood by and watched. Dean left relatively unscathed -- still waiting and wondering when the real fight will begin.
"We were prepared for it," said Dean's campaign manager, Joe Trippi. "We thought it would happen. I don't know why it didn't."
That day is surely coming, given the competitiveness of the Democratic race. But the hesitation of his main rivals in Iowa and New Hampshire to challenge Dean more directly in Albuquerque is a reminder that the art of the negative campaign is not always straightforward and obvious. Dean's rivals eventually must challenge him directly, but picking the time and place is part of what they and their advisers are now debating.
Dean advisers say his opponents have a difficult choice for another reason, given what has happened this year. Trippi said that previous attacks, such as when leaders of the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC) criticized him, have only strengthened Dean and boosted his fundraising. "If you don't try to do something to try to upset our apple cart, we continue to grow," he said. "When they've tried, we jump the hurdle and grow faster."
A Democratic strategist who is privy to such things said recently that the opposition research against the former Vermont governor "is just fabulous," a rich menu of potential attacks that the strategist said could cause serious problems for Dean's surging presidential candidacy. "There's tons of stuff there."
Dean is open to challenge for having changed or altered positions on the Social Security retirement age, gun control, Cuba policy and trade. He has made comments on issues including Iraq and the Middle East that his opponents can force him to defend. Dean's campaign team may underestimate the degree to which attacks could hurt him.
The question is who and when. In past campaigns, debates have often been the moments for such engagement. Four years ago, Al Gore used a debate in New Hampshire to challenge Bill Bradley on health care, and Bradley's weak response helped turn that race in Gore's direction. Walter F. Mondale stopped his hemorrhaging against Gary Hart in 1984 with his "Where's the beef?" line in a debate in Georgia.
Strategists for some of the Democratic candidates have concluded that at this juncture, debates do not offer an ideal opportunity for engagement. There are too many candidates on the stage, and the formats make it almost impossible for anything beyond a mild skirmish. Some of Dean's rivals fear that a concerted attack from several of them will turn into a story of Dean being jumped on by the other candidates, rather than an exchange from which Dean emerges as a clear loser.
"I did not think this format was conducive to producing any result other than 'Rivals Attack Dean' and allowing him to stand out as the front-running outsider against the big bad Washington guys who were beating him up together," one Gephardt adviser said. "So I didn't think that was the right forum or venue for doing it. I don't have any problem with attacking him, and we're obviously going to get after him."
There are other times and places to do so. A candidate could lay out the case against Dean in a speech in Iowa or New Hampshire. Or another candidate could use a non-debate gathering of the field to strike. Gore did that against Bradley at an Iowa Democratic dinner in 1999. Iowa Democrats have scheduled a similar dinner for November.
One experienced Democratic strategist warned, however, that the candidate who leads the attack against Dean could suffer and see another candidate reap the benefits.
"When you have a large field within the same party, if you run a negative campaign, you can almost be certain you will lose," this strategist said. "You simply cannot sustain a negative attack in the context of the Democratic Party over the long term and expect to attract support if you don't have a big base of support. And even Howard Dean doesn't have a big base of support."
Television advertising offers another medium for attacking Dean, but the candidates are reluctant to use it right now. Most have just begun their television ad campaigns and prefer to use their advertising dollars to build positive support for their candidacies. They also fear that activists in Iowa and particularly New Hampshire will punish a candidate whose television ads are too negative. The activists, say strategists, want the candidates to attack President Bush, not one another.
Steve Elmendorf, senior adviser to Gephardt's campaign, said the former House Democratic leader's sharp attacks on Bush Thursday night -- Gephardt called the president "a miserable failure" several times -- reflected the belief that Democratic voters are looking for a candidate to challenge Bush.
"That's the way to stand out in the field," Elmendorf said. "If an opportunity to contrast with an opponent arises, you take it, but not if the format doesn't lend itself to it or the question isn't asked. But the most important thing for Democratic primary voters is to make the strongest case against Bush."
One veteran of the Gore campaign said the former vice president avoided sharply negative ads against Bradley in Iowa and New Hampshire for that reason. "The appetite in New Hampshire and Iowa [for negative ads] is very low," he said. But he said there is "much more appetite" among activists to see candidates confront one another directly on substance and issues.
Kerry and Gephardt have offered criticism of Dean, but Lieberman has been the most consistent in arguing that Dean would make a weak nominee against Bush. Lieberman advisers say the senator is trying to contrast himself with most of the Democrats running, not just Dean.
The other candidates look at two sets of polls and come to their own conclusions about what to do about Dean. In Iowa and New Hampshire, they see a candidate who has risen to the top of the field, suggesting attacks are needed sooner rather than later. But in national polls and surveys in other states, they see a Democratic electorate just starting to pay attention.
"We know that this is not the last debate we will have," Elmendorf said as he reviewed the results of Thursday's event. "There will be many more over the coming months."
In the meantime, Trippi said of Dean's campaign: "We're going to keep doing what we've been doing and not worry about it."
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