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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 55.26+1.2%Nov 11 3:59 PM EST

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To: Robohogs who wrote (9052)9/8/2003 10:44:17 AM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (3) of 52153
 
short techs and go long drugs. Nah, I don't think so

It's worth talking some about the macro environment here. I view real-estate refinancings as having been a huge driver of consumer spending over the last few years. I think that party is now very much over - the sharp uptick in rates will cool off (or maybe even in some areas reverse) real estate appreciation and also sharply limit further refinancing.

On the other hand, business spending seems to be picking up. Today's WSJ has a front-page article showing that the capacity glut in many sectors is slowly ebbing.

So perhaps the correct play for the next months (or longer) may be long tech (including biotech) and short consumer and real-estate stocks. Interesting that WMT is down today (despite saying that they are on-track for September sales gains of 3-5%)amidst a good day for tech and biotech.

Bonds and the dollar remain extremely unclear to me.

Comments welcomed.

Peter
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