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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)
AMAT 230.77+0.9%Nov 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (7092)9/8/2003 12:30:36 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Read Replies (2) of 25522
 
RE: "Where are we going?"

1. I see steady unit volume growth for semis. This is a return to historical and pre bubble behavior.

2. ASPs will continue to fall, with more and more chips taking on the look of commodities. This is historical behavior.

3. Total chip revenue will grow at rates that exceed GDP, but to achieve or exceed historical growth rates new products from technology advances must increase demand at rates that more than compensate for falling ASPs. I think this will happen.

4. Semi-equip revenue will grow in 2004 and accelerate to a typical upcycle pace in 2005, 2006, 2007 (2006, 2007, 2008 seems less probable, now) with peak stock prices in 2006.
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