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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.81+2.7%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: The Ox who wrote (11489)9/8/2003 12:56:42 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) of 95616
 
Michael, You have mentioned CMOS a couple of times as a possible buy so I thought I would post some the recent First Call earnings estimates for the Group FWIW. The table below shows the estimates for the individual stocks within the Group and the bottom line summation.

Note that for the 2 week period of 8/21 to 9/4, CMOS and WFR were the only 2 stocks in the Group that had falling estimates. CMOS took a pretty big hit. Their FY ends at the end of September so a new "next years" estimate will be coming up soon, but right now, both years are negative by quite a large amount.


-	    DATA FROM FIRST CALL
-	   8/21/03	  9/4/03
-	 EARNINGS EST	 EARNINGS EST	 EARNINGS CHG
SYMBOL	CURR YR	NEXT YR	CURR YR	NEXT YR	CURR YR	NEXT YR
AMAT	 0.13	 0.46	 0.13	 0.46
ASML	-0.34	 0.37	-0.34	 0.37
ASYT	-1.02	 0.44	-1.02	 0.44
ATMI	-0.02	 0.59	-0.01	 0.64	 0.01	 0.05
BRKS	-1.56	 0.24	-1.56	 0.24
CMOS	-1.42	-0.12	-1.59	-0.41	-0.17	-0.29
COHU	 0.06	 0.62	 0.06	 0.62
CYMI	-0.31	 0.96	-0.31	 0.97		 0.01
DPMI	-1.80	 0.70	-1.80	 0.70
EGLS	-2.01	-0.71	-2.01	-0.71
FSII	-1.41	-0.10	-1.41	-0.10
HELX	-0.09	 0.43	-0.09	 0.43
KLAC	 1.03	 1.76	 1.03	 1.80		 0.04
KLIC	-1.09	 0.20	-1.09	 0.20
LRCX	 0.37	 0.88	 0.37	 0.92		 0.04
LTXX	-0.91	-0.42	-0.42		 0.49	 0.42
MTSN	-0.60	-0.06	-0.60	-0.06
NVLS	 0.18	 0.67	 0.18	 0.67
PHTN	-0.96	 0.54	-0.96	 0.54
PLAB	-0.30	 0.66	-0.20	 0.72	 0.10	 0.06
SMTL	-0.34	 0.16	-0.34	 0.16
TER	-0.60	 0.46	-0.60	 0.46
UTEK	 0.14	 0.66	 0.14	 0.68		 0.02
VECO	 0.19	 0.69	 0.19	 0.69
WFR	 0.47	 0.64	 0.47	 0.61		-0.03
TOTAL  -12.21	10.72  -11.78	11.04	 0.43	 0.32

Now having posted the table, it probably doesn't mean much, and you may very well be right. Going up the left side of the "bubble" as we are presently doing, all stocks in the Group will rise. CMOS having negative estimates has been beaten down somewhat compared to others in the table. All it will take is some positive upgrades and the stock could move up very quickly.

In the last 4 weeks, CMOS is already rebounding at a rapid rate with a 41 percent gain.

Message 19277284

Some good news and it could move even faster, but even without the good news, it will go up. On the left side of the "bubble", valuations and earnings matter very little. The stocks that have been beaten down and at the bottom of the Group during the "down cycle" will rise the furthest and the fastest in the "up cycle".

Don
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