Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 285.23

-3.7%

Dec 17 4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (11502)	9/8/2003 6:45:56 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (2) of 95596

We haven't seen the first "miss" or earnings warning. There will be at least a few before Oct begins as not every business is going to be showing solid improvements. Some company may want to "take their lumps" now, before the 4th Qtr begins or for some other reason. We have seen the analyst upgrades pour in lately. If the move north continues into earnings season, then we should get the sell on news downgrades (future gains already priced in, etc...). The higher we go, the more likely we see a major correction or crash type phenomenon but there's always the possibility that we see another sideways move for a month or more before resuming the advance. Right now it makes sense to let your long winners run, only taking profits on huge moves up. Also, I'd be very careful about adding to or starting new long positions. The more risk adverse one feels, the more I would suggest keeping plenty of cash or building one's cash position into this run. I'm not sure it's that healthy for the market to go down 100 points a day and then back up the same amount the next.

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