Issa is confirming what I have been saying
Congressman: Some Republicans must drop out Otherwise, he says, Schwarzenegger is likely to lose
By Kathy Kiely
USA TODAY
WASHINGTON -- The financial godfather of the California recall election says there's no way that actor-turned-candidate Arnold Schwarzenegger can replace Gov. Gray Davis unless some Republicans in the race drop out.
Darrell Issa, a Republican congressman who invested $1.75 million of his personal fortune in an effort to oust Davis, said he bases his conclusion on ''pure arithmetic.''
Of California's 15 million voters, 44% are registered as Democrats; 35% are Republicans. The last day to register to vote in the special Oct. 7 election is Sept. 22.
Some people believe Schwarzenegger can attract enough new voters to overcome the divided Republican field. But party leaders are worried that won't be the case.
Three prominent Republicans are running to be the next California governor: Schwarzenegger, state Sen. Tom McClintock and Peter Ueberroth, the former baseball commissioner and manager of the 1984 Olympic Games in Los Angeles. Only one significant Democratic contender is on the ballot: Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante.
''Pure arithmetic destroys the ability to win,'' Issa said during an interview in his congressional office here. ''Three Republicans, one Democrat; you can't win. That's the situation we have right now. It is statistically almost impossible for Schwarzenegger to win unless we reduce (the field) at least by one.''
Issa's blunt comments come when GOP leaders appear to be ratcheting up the pressure for back-of-the-pack candidates to get out. In a telephone interview from his Sacramento office on Friday, state Senate Republican leader Jim Brulte, a key party strategist, echoed Issa's remarks.
''Three candidates dividing the vote lose to one candidate not dividing the vote,'' Brulte said.
On the recall ballot, California voters will first be asked whether they want to remove Davis, a Democrat. No matter how they answer that question, they can then choose a possible replacement among 135 names on the ballot. If more than 50% vote yes on the recall question, the candidate with the highest number of votes will become the next governor.
For Republicans, time is running short. California elections officials will begin mailing out absentee ballots today. Party strategists would like to unite behind a single candidate before voters begin filling out those ballots.
One problem: Schwarzenegger is not the favorite of many fiscal conservatives who helped start the recall drive. ''I'm voting for McClintock,'' says Ted Costa, the leader of People's Advocate, a Sacramento-based anti-tax group that helped spark the recall effort. McClintock, a well-known anti-tax crusader, has repeatedly said he has no intention of dropping out.
Although Issa (EYE-sa) has not endorsed Schwarzenegger, he said the Republicans running behind the actor in the polls need to begin facing the numerical reality. If Ueberroth cannot boost his poll numbers into the high teens within the next two weeks, ''then he's not viable,'' Issa says. Of McClintock: ''Tom's going to have to come to the awareness that if Bustamante's the next governor, and he -- McClintock -- gets 10-15% of the vote, then McClintock will have been the man who made Bustamante governor.''
Issa, 44, a business executive who made a fortune selling car alarm systems, set up and bankrolled the organization that provided 1.25 million of the 2.2 million signatures that put the recall question on the ballot.
The congressman was poised to enter the race, but he tearfully announced he was getting out the day after Schwarzenegger said he was getting in.
''I made the decision that if my desire had always been to change California by recalling the governor . . . then I had to be the first out of the race and ask others to get out as quickly as possible,'' he says.
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