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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 54.58-1.0%Nov 10 3:59 PM EST
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To: BulbaMan who wrote (9076)9/9/2003 4:07:18 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) of 52153
 
Thanks, Bulba.

I read the nanotech piece - interesting but I think it's somewhat overblown and sensationalized (as most such pieces tend to be, on both the promises and the dangers).

We'll have to wait at least ten years before we can ride in "superintelligent" airplanes enhanced with nanotechnology, according to a Boeing executive.

If there's one thing that moves slower than new drugs, it's new commercial aircraft. The 747 is now getting on for 40 years old, and while I'm not saying it hasn't changed, it's actually pretty similar now to when it was first introduced. The chance of nanotech being on a commercial aircraft in 10 years is virtually nil in my view.

In terms of biotech, seems to me that, for example, viruses are pretty good existing examples of nanotech. For "artificial" nanotech to be used in medicine I can already see the FDA freaking out (not to mention the Greens). I don't myself consider artifical red blood cells to be nanotech or anything like it (other than being the right size of course).

I actually think that many experienced biotech investors can do a better job of mid-range (5-10 years) forecasting than any other group (including journalists and futurists) I can think of. We're used to dealing with the dramatic "story" that then slowly dies over several years as it meets reality. (We've also seen success where a story eventually pans out and makes billions a decade later). We're used to looking five or ten years ahead and figuring out what drugs will be around.

FWIW.

Peter
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