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To: TigerPaw who wrote (945)	9/10/2003 4:00:21 AM
From: GUSTAVE JAEGER	Read Replies (1) of 1112

Re: The Russian experience just shows that.... ...the whole geopolitical landscape in Central Asia changed dramatically since the USSR invaded Afghanistan back in 1979. Indeed, 20 years ago, Pakistan didn't have any operational nuclear arsenal on a par with the Soviet Union --Pakistan's nuclear program was still in its infancy. Moreover, the USSR was able to launch a conventional --that is, manpower-intensive-- offensive against Afghanistan because it could tap a much larger military pool, I mean, the USSR had a population of about 270 million and a total military of three million. Remember what NATO hawks used to say about the USSR back in the early 1980s --Russian tanks could sweep their way down to Gibraltar in less than three days! The USSR allegedly had a "conventional edge" hence the need for NATO to deploy tactical nukes in Germany, Belgium,... Well, I digress... and my point is to show that the Russian military no longer enjoyed any strategic lead over Pakistan, a country that by now has a credible nuclear deterrence. As for a conventional offensive by Russia against Afghanistan, it would be an unsustainable bloodshed since Pakistan has as much manpower to waste as Russia: Pakistan's population = 145 million and growing vs Russia's pop of 140 million and dwindling. Get the picture? It's such an unfavorable balance of power between Russia and Pakistan that prompted Putin's adviser Yastremsbky to utter the threat of a preemptive nuclear strike... Such a bad state of affairs between two nuclear powers was compounded by the fact that Russia and Pakistan didn't talk to each other!! Musharraf's visit to Moscow two(?) months ago was the first visit by a Pakistani leader since the early 1970s!!!! There wasn't any "red telephone" between the Kremlin and Islamabad --hence the need for a US intervention. Gus

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