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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 217.17+0.3%3:59 PM EST
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To: Marc Hyman who wrote (8188)8/7/1997 11:04:00 PM
From: WBendus   of 61433
 
"So where do you think rates are going over the next 6-18 months?"

Whish I had a clue marc. If I had to make a guess, I would say back to 6.625% short term and possibly in a range between 5.75 and 6.75 over the next 12 to 18 months. To play the bond market, you had better be watching the monthly economic indications. In particular are the monthly jobless claims, producer prices, consumer prices, and commodities prices. The Fed is itching to raise rates as they all fear the Philips Curve, which shows an inverse relationship between employment and inflation. Commodity prices have been stagging a rally out of a recent low. Other factors would include the rates overseas. There is a lot of talk of raising rates in Europe, if this happens, it might make the likelyhood of rate risings hear in the States more likely. There are so many variables that influence the bond market that you are better off, in my opinion, letting the professions with their eloborate models and teams of economists and researchers trade them. Day trading bond futures can be fun, but I would not want to venture a longer term play. Maybe that is because I am niave about all the factors that influence the bond market.

Wayde.
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