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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: Silver Super Bull who wrote (684)9/10/2003 4:15:53 PM
From: I_C_Deadpeople  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
I followed Prechter for some years including the monthly subscriptions. I owe the guy a lot because he did open my eyes to whole concept of waves, bubbles, market psychology.

What I have noticed about his long term forecasts is that he is very stubborn. He made the sub-$200 gold call way back in 1982 or so. Great call really. Then, when it got close at $252 I think he stubbornly held to his original call and simply did not see the bottom that others did. I recall when gold was at about $270 he said it would need to break $320 to be bullish. Once through $320, he said $340, then the same for $375 now $400. Again, I think he is just a bit stubborn on these long term calls.
The same can be said about his Dow 3000 call in 1978. He originally called for a top at either 1987 or 1991 (this is from memory BTW)and was essentially correct about 1987. But once it recovered, he completely missed the boat on the wave count and was continually calling for the start of the SC Bear through most of the nineties. Again, he stubbornly held to his original count and would not accept another count.
Just my opinion on the guy. I must say I love his writings on the sentiment in bull and bear markets. I wonder if Hamilton, Bolton or Elliott himself would have had a better handle on the wave count in the 90's.
For a comparison, one can look at a Richard Russell who went back to the bull side after the 1987 recovery and basically stayed there until 1999 or so. He seems to have very good long term calls. Of course we know that he believes gold is now in a long term bull market.
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