Dean is going to tumble now, only a matter of time.
As the perceived front-runner coming out of August he's finally in the spotlight and he has fumbled seven times since. Six fli-flops of stands and one outright lie during the debate. This is being covered in the press now too. Add to this his desperation to get Clark on his side (Clark will turn him down) and his being attacked by Nancy Pelosi and her bunch, not to mention Lieberman and the Clintonite middle, and it is only a matter of time.
I predict Kerry will win or tie in NH and go on to win. It may not appear he is winning at first, but as the other four senators eventually drop out, Kerry will get 90% of their supporters. The nail in Dean's coffin will be the Clintons and Gore prefering Kerry. Also supporting Kerry over Dean will be McCain, Hart, Biden, Feinstein (giving a fundraiser for Kerry next week), Daschle, you name it.
Dean will run hard but will end up like Paul Tsongas and Bill Bradley. The lesson, running against the DC establishment only works at first or when there is revolution in the streets. In the end, they will kill you. Remember, 37% of delegates are pretty much controlled by the DNC. Dean won't get them and hence, won't win. Also hurts that Karl Rove has come out wanting Dean as his opponent. Ouch.
Finally, Dean and Kerry were both shown on TV last night playing blues guitar. Kerry was in the groove with a backup band and smiled. Dean was playing solo and was just intense. MTV will prefer the Kerry Band over Dean unplugged. |
