re N. Korea, my guesses:
1. I doubt they now have nuclear weapons. I think they will test one, in secret, as soon as they have one.
2. They feel threatened, in need of a clear deterrent, so they won't hold off on testing, as India and Pakistan did. They'll test as soon as they can.
3. It'll be a secret test, as a failed pre-announced test would be a big "loss of face", and an invitation for the U.S. to invade quickly (in the window of opportunity before a successful test).
4. N. Korea will not engage in any serious negotiations, until after a successful test. This improves their bargaining position. They may also be waiting until a post-Bush Administration.
5. I, too, think they will only use a weapon in self-defense. The risk, here, is that the regime is so brittle, and so illegitimate, that any internal instability risks the use of nuclear weapons. "Self-defense" means defense of the regime, not just defense of the nation from external threats. By threatening them, we harden their siege mentality, and make a catastrophic miscalculation more likely.
6. Nations with nuclear weapons but no method for peaceful transfer of power, are a ticking time bomb. |
