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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH
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To: American Spirit who wrote (457982)9/12/2003 8:46:28 PM
From: Richard S  Read Replies (3) of 769667
 
I am betting Wesley Clark will not run. Clark not only needs the monies and organization to compete aggressively against each candidate but he needs to build his candidacy after he establishes his own base. He then needs a war chest to compete against the $200 million dollar+ fund that BUSH will have by the time of the election.

I think that is what the CNN poll numbers show. Clark ends up with about 9% of the vote by taking approximately 2% from each of the four front runners and 1% from the rest. That then becomes his base. The rest he has to fight for with the other candidates.

The real question is whether any of the candidates will drop out before the convention.

I would think that Edwards, Sharpton(maybe), Graham, Kucinich, and Mosley Braun will drop out and that would leave about 20% of the vote split? between the remaining candidates. I believe the other 5 candidates will drop out because they will have 4% or less of the vote. I don't think they anyone of them can make an impact on the convention voting without at least 5% of the vote.

With Clark and the others out, I would expect a split closer to the following:

Dean - 35%
Gephardt - 17%
Kerry - 17%
Lieberman - 11%

With that majority Dean should get nominated on the first ballot.
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