Dean cannot get a majority of delegates. Even if your wildly optimistic 37% happens, (which would mean he'd have to win about 50% of the vote during the primaries because few Super Delegates would back him), where is he going to get the other 13.1%?
Lieberman, Gephardt, Graham, Edwards and Sharpton won't give their delegates to Dean. And only Gephardt will probably have 13.1% to give. Kerry won't either. Dean's only prayer would be if Clark is in the race with enough delegates to put him over the top and they merge as a ticket. But that is real long shot IMHO. Then again, anything is possible. But don't hold your breath.
More likely, Dean finishes with about 20% of the delegates and 25% of the vote and is the odd man out, with the party powers getting behind Kerry or possibly Gephardt if he does surprisingly well.
If Kerry doesn't make it, Gore has a shot to break the deadlock because the party needs someone they really trust and Gore would be perceived as "deserving" it. The party simply does not trust Dean or any outsider.
Dean would be more likely to win the White House as an Independent in a three-way race. Maybe he will do that too, break off when not nominated and run against both parties. That's more likely than him getting nominated. And if no one picks Clark as a Veep, then Dean picks him. But the Dem ticket could woo Clark back by promising him Secretary of Defense or State. Third party challengers have a steep mountain to climb. None have ever won. The game is rigged, remember, one of two houses always wins and both parties nominate the candidate they want. |
