A.S. to GOP Rival: 'Get Out or I Lose'
Unless the Ninth Circuit delays the whole thing!
By Mickey Kaus Slate
Updated Saturday, September 13, 2003, at 1:22 AM PT
Breaking Recall News: I had thought the "pressure-on-conservative-Tom-McClintock-to-get-out" story line was overdone and premature, with the California recall election 25 long days away. But tonight, Friday, the night before the state Republican convention in Los Angeles, Team Arnold has sent out what would seem to be a slightly panicky pollster's memo to "interested reporters," saying essentially (if I read it right) that Schwarzenegger will probably lose unless McClintock gets out.
The analysis, by Jan van Lohuizen of Voter/Consumer Research, is contained in a memo from the Schwarzenegger campaign's Darrel Ng to campaign spokeswoman Karen Hanretty. It notes (and I'm quoting mainly the slightly panicky, negative bits):
... we continue to find that Democratic crossover voting is minimal. To the extent that Democrats do cross over, it is to Arnold; but there are only so many crossover votes to be had. Keep in mind that both in the Lungren and in the Simon elections more than 85% of registered Democrats voted for Davis. The days that we could count on 20% or more of registered Democrats crossing over are long gone. ... [snip]
5. A thorough analysis of the data so far show that Bustamante's share of the votes cast by registered Democrats is extremely unlikely to go below 60% and could go as high as 70%. The remaining 30% to 40% will vote for Arnold (up to 20%), vote for one of the candidates to the left of Bustamante (10% to 15%) or not vote at all in the election to replace (up to 5%).
Simple back of the envelope math shows that under these circumstances it is vital to maximize the share of Republicans voting for Arnold. Even under the most optimistic turnout scenarios Democrats will cast more ballots than Republicans. With more Democrats showing up at the polls and Bustamante getting a greater share of Democratic votes cast than Arnold getting of Republican votes cast, is a clear prescription for losing our best shot at winning the Governorship. ... [Emph. added.]
On the other hand, van Lohuizen says:
The back of the envelope math is very different when McClintock withdraws. We would get well over 80% of votes cast by Republicans, 15 to 20% of votes cast by Democrats and up to 40% of votes cast by independents. This works out to roughly 48% of all votes cast. I don't see any reasonable scenario under which we lose if this happens.
Perhaps Schwarzenegger is spooked by the start of absentee voting, or worried about debating McClintock, or worried about ongoing scandal damage--otherwise, you'd think the best GOP strategy would be to let McClintock run his campaign, rally his troops and then, at some date much closer to the election, give a rousing speech tossing his support to Schwarzenegger. (See Weintraub.) ... P.S.: Or does Schwarzenegger want to get McClintock out before the Ninth Circuit delays the whole damn election, which could happen next week? [link via Hasen]... P.P.S.: Not only does sending the memo make Schwarzenegger look slightly desperate--if McClintock now doesn't get out this weekend it makes McClintock seem the victor and Schwarzenegger look ineffectual. ... P.P.P.S.: Should sending out the van Lohuizen memo prove to be a mistake, Schwarzenegger consultant Mike Murphy can always make it clear to reporters afterwards that he never liked the idea.
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