Periodic Assessment.
As readers of this thread know, I’ve divided the period between the “carrier strut” and the ’04 election into six quarters - to better track developments. At the end of the first quarter, Iraq was already beginning to sour. Those that were alert, could see things were not proceeding according to “plan”. The second quarter is now almost half over. During this period, we’ve had the beginning of vehicle bombs, and an Admin “mid-course correction” – the latter is a tacit (but never verbalized) admission that something is amiss.
Back in the first quarter, the DoD sent a group to Iraq to “assess the situation”. Their own panel replied that a closing “window of opportunity” existed. The current “scramble” for an acceptable UN resolution is provoked by Rove et al seeing that window closing. As the government’s own report shows, the US has no choice, but to reduce US troop strength in Iraq, or seriously degrade military readiness. This at a time when the Iran and North Korea pots are coming to a boil. Moreover, there’s the cost, and to whom the profits are increasingly obviously going. All reports are that the planning for the Iraq Donors’ Conference are not going well. The idea that a UN resolution would relieve the troop problem is becoming ever more problematic.
So after some time “back at the ranch”, the Admin has launched its “Fall offensive”. Increasingly, this offensive looks like a “Hail Mary” pass. It will take a miracle for the Security Council members to change their minds, and acquiesce to a UN resolution to the Admins liking.. Only if countries (like India) reverse their “leaked” plans will additional troops be available. And only if much of the rest of the world suddenly supports the idea of an American hegemony, will the Donors’ Conference be successful.
Meanwhile Iran has to the end of this (aforementioned) quarter, to comply with a UN ultimatum, and Korea seems to be preparing a nuclear test. Do you see those chickens filing into the roosting coop George?
JMO
lurqer |
