No longer just a frontrunner,Dean now looks unstoppable
With the latest Zogby poll from Iowa, Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean has taken another major step towards winning the Democratic nomination.
Dean's meteoric rise among Democratic and Independent voters is hard to overlook. In three Zogby polls of Iowa voters, Dean's support has risen from 2% (January) to 6% (April) to 23% (September).
His 2-6-23 rise in the Iowa polls is in stark contrast to his competitors. Richard Gephardt (19-25-17) has remained popular but has fallen behind Dean. John Kerry (11-13-11) maintains his solid grip on the 3rd spot in Iowa.
Joe Lieberman, who has been campaigning strongly against Dean, has watched his popularity plummit from 17% to 9% to 4%. His unmistakable drop in the polls is a key reason why other candidates are reluctant to campaign negatively against Dean.
Dean's success is not a local phenomenom. Even as Dean has surpassed Gephardt in Iowa, he has similarly overtaken John Kerry in New Hampshire. In three Zogby polls for the Granite State, Dean's support has risen from 13% (February) to 22% (June) to 38% (August). Dean's rise has come at the expense of Kerry (26-25-17) and Gephardt (11-7-6).
Dean's rise in the key primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire has forced candidates to alter their strategies. With a loss in New Hampshire more likely, Kerry has shifted his campaign focus to the traditionally conservative state of South Carolina, where John Edwards is considered the frontrunner. Making no mention of his reputation as a New England liberal, Kerry "launched" his campaign in South Carolina after the Labor Day weekend, hoping that his status as a Vietnam veteran will draw support.
But to the dismay of most candidates, Howard Dean is also making inroads in this state. In three Zogby polls since March, Dean has seen his popularity rise from 1% (March) to 4% (July) to 9% (September). That may not seem like much, but Dean is now in a virtual dead heat with Edwards (10%), Kerry (8%) and Lieberman (8%). In addition, his upward trend in the state is unmistakeable and he has the most potential room to expand. More South Carolinians (56%) are unfamiliar with his campaign than with any other major candidate.
Earlier polls in California and Maryland also show Dean on top, and he made a strong showing (13%) in an early August poll of Michigan voters.
Zogby reports that Dean (17%) leads all other Democratic candidates in national polls as well. Gephardt (11%), Lieberman (10%), and Kerry (9%) seem to be the only candidates that still have a shot, however long, at catching Dean.
Dean's popularity has benefitted from his accelerated campaign tactics. He was the first candidate to air television ads in the key primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire, and launched a million-dollar, six-state ad campaign before Kerry had "officially" announced his campaign. In football, this is equivalent to sprinting for the goal line while the defense is still in its huddle.
The impression that Dean is leaving his competition "in the dust" is unmistakeable. General Wesley Clark, considered by many to be a legitimate presidential candidate in his own right, has been approached by the Dean campaign as a possible Vice Presidential candidate. Selecting a VP before a single primary vote has been cast is bold and unprecedented in modern politics. A Dean-Clark ticket might prompt the party to rally behind Howard Dean and begin preparing for the long, expensive battle for the White House |
