re: Villepin's proposal for Iraq:
<Another path remains possible, putting the Iraqi people in the center of reconstruction processes...>
Nice idea, but the Iraqi people aren't going to cooperate, as long as a foreign army of occupation is in control.
<let us acknowledge that the foreign presence in itself constitutes a point of contention>
Right. Whether under the UN flag or not.
<Today, it is urgent to transfer sovereignty to the Iraqi people themselves, to allow them to completely fulfill their own responsibilities. Then, the different ethnic communities will find the strength, I hope, to work together.>
Hope? He wants to transfer power to Iraqis quickly, and he hopes they will choose politics not based on ethnicity, not based on religion. Since every existing political party and militia in Iraq is based on ethnicity or religion, this is an unrealistic hope.
<Let’s speed up the formation of an Iraqi national army along the lines of what we’re doing in Afghanistan.>
In Afghanistan, the warlords control the country, Western soldiers control the capital, the tiny "national army" is controlled by an ethnic minority that is unacceptable to the majority population of Afghanistan, and the "President" of Afghanistan controls.......nothing. Not even his own capital. Not even his own puny army. This is the model Villepin wants to follow?
He goes on to propose keeping military power in US hands, while political power is given to the UN, who quickly hands it over to Iraqis. Doesn't give any details, about which Iraqis he wants to hand power to.
He wants to quickly reconstitute an Iraqi Army, hand over internal security to them, and limit the foreign soldiers to securing the frontiers. Nice idea. But who is going to be in charge of this army, and what makes Villepin think they will take orders from the US, or the UN? The Kurds have their own armies, controlling their own areas. The Sunnis are in rebellion. That leaves the Shiites. We are already in the process of turning over Shiite cities to the Badr Brigade. The ground in Iraq, following the Afghan pattern, is gradually being seized by a variety of militias, none of whom are willing to take orders from foreigners. The window of opportunity is already closed, to reconstitute an Iraqi army.
<General elections could be envisaged for as soon as possible, spring 2004.>
Difficult to see how elections could happen, in the current security environment. Since political parties based on ideology (rather than tribe, race, or religion) have yet to emerge in Iraq, it's highly unlikley they would win an election held in 2004.
To sum up: Villepin is doing a lot of wishful thinking. He sees the ongoing failure of the current American plan, but his proposals are also unrealistic. Villepin sounds a lot like Abbas, hoping Hamas can be talked into disarming, hoping the Americans will force the Israelis to dismantle their settlements. Standing on the disappearing middle ground. |
