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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go?
EMC 29.050.0%Sep 15 5:00 PM EST
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To: Gus who wrote (15280)9/16/2003 1:27:03 AM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (1) of 17183
 
Does it really matter that desktop drives account for 70% of total industry unit shipments if the desktop PC market is a mature market with meager growth prospects ieee-sfbac.org, whereas the 2.5" market is growing 19.4% this year. eweek.com

You may characterize the 2.5" opportunity as an incremental one for the US drive makers, but it doesn't change the essential fact that the Yanks are coming and attacking a Japanese stronghold. Why shouldn't the Japanese respond to such a threat? If the US drive industry perceives its 2.5" opportunity as incremental, that merely raises the possibility that such retaliation by the Japanese may be successful in motivating the Americans to back down and retreat to their own 3.5" domain while leaving the 2.5" market to the Japanese.

Perhaps the CE market is still too marginal to attract the Japanese as you suggest. How difficult would it be for Hitachi and Toshiba to present a credible threat elsewhere within the core 3.5" segment to persuade the Big 3 to alter their expansionary plans?

I admit that I could be way off base here. I'm simply posing a possible scenario. It does not seem like such a remote possibility to me given the eagerness that Japan has demonstrated in its zeal to protect its markets.

I do not pretend to have a thorough grasp of the industry, however, and if you think the possibility of the scenario I have projected is remote, for whatever reason, then I will dismiss it and not give it any further thought.
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