Befriend the Trend Trading Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Befriend the Trend Trading

SPY 675.37

-1.2%

Nov 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (31160)	9/16/2003 3:17:20 AM
From: Herring	Read Replies (2) of 39683

My IBM amateur opinion: I will look at this in 3 time zones: Weekly, Daily, 15 minute ignoring fundamentals. Weekly: The stock is trading at the outer bollinger band & strongly overbought (80s). Even if we can break the 90 mark (which is about where the outer bollinger band is sitting) there is going to be strong pressure by the bears to pull this back in line. Weekly shows overbought. Daily chart: Recent strong moves above the bollinger bands which got pulled back to the ma. The bulls were trying to pull it back to the outer bollinger band but failed. MACD is on the decline - bad thing. It does appear that the bears are taking ownership. Recent increase in volume is on the decline. Stochastics still above 50 so the stock is not in oversold areas but have more opportunity for downside. 15 Minute: M formation at the 90 shows very strong resistance. Volume is slightly declining. MACD or stochastics for this time frame is useless other than for timing the stock, but in the short term the MACD is also negative which is more of a confirmation that the 90 mark will be a tough resistance to break. All three time frames look either overbought or on the decline. The overall market trend (technicals on the NASD) are weak and the market is looking to be due to profit taking. It does not look good headed in to historically one of the weakest months (October) in stock market history. My prediction is therefore: IBM will head downwards towards the 80 mark. There is support at 80 (look at daily beg/Aug & beg/Jul) so if it hits 80 it will likely mover upward. I predict the stock at $82.50 by September 30th. Warning: I am very much a rookie technical analyst so please indicate where you think I am wrong. Thanks, Herring (long time lurker)

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