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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing
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To: Eva who wrote (20506)9/16/2003 8:16:03 AM
From: austrieconomist  Read Replies (1) of 39344
 
Puplava article. No discussion at all regarding the possibility that the commodity surge reflected in the CRB Index from November, 2001 through January, 2003, might be explained in large part by the MZM surge from November, 2000 through January, 2002 (20% continuous annualized growth rate).

research.stlouisfed.org

Despite the recent appreciation in the CRB Index the past month, the last 7-8 months in that Index are best characterized as flat to down. Russell made observations last evening regarding the commodities climate as better fitting a deflation scenario than an inflation scenario.

"Take a look at the P&F chart below. This chart has a decidedly bearish look about it. The chart is the Goldman Sachs Spot Commodity Index. As this chart breaks down, it's saying "deflation in commodities." Deflation? Russell, what the hell are you talking about -- how can that be?

And my answer again is GLOBAL OVERPRODUCTION. Overproduction is apparent in every area of the world economies and obviously commodities are proving to be no exception!"

I am staying flexible in my thinking regarding inflation/deflation. My present belief is that much greater rates of money creation than have already been undertaken will be required to create an inflationary environment that can overcome the present debt structure.
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