Jabil Circuit (JBL) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Jabil Circuit (JBL)

JBL 220.26

-0.3%

Nov 3 3:59 PM EST

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To: Asymmetric who wrote (6230)	9/16/2003 11:17:31 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (1) of 6317

Good morning Peter, The breadth of the market advance has been much greater than I had expected. For weeks we've been seeing well over 500 new highs on both the NASDAQ and the NYSE while new lows have numbered less than 50. Looking back 52 weeks it's not hard to figure out why there are so many new highs, however! Even advances vs declines has been impressive not only in its cumulative levels but in its consistency for several months. As TrimTabs said, money has started to flow back from the bond side to the equity side. The bond peak was a few months back and some managed to catch it. I've actually been surprised with how strong the bond market has remained. Many bond funds are still near their highs for the last year. Speculation and consolidation seem to be working during different weeks. We have a solid advance one week and then a week of consolidation or distribution. Selling into the strength has let my cash reserve rise with portfolio value. The percent of cash has remained relatively constant as the portf. has grown. aim-users.com Where I'm beginning to see a problem for the market is in what I lovingly call "relative valuation". It is a combination of short term interest rates and a broad based P/E. I use the 13 week Treasury rate along with Value Line's P/E. It's currently adding up to about 19. This is still in its Bullish range, but only just. The Neutral range is from 19.5 to 21.5. So we're still a distance from the Bearish range in this component of the market, but it has been rising steadily for some time. aim-users.com Let's hope Earnings start to improve to keep the Relative Valuation in line. Best regards, Tom

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