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Technology Stocks : EMC How high can it go?
EMC 29.050.0%Sep 15 5:00 PM EST

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To: Sam Citron who wrote (15283)9/16/2003 5:06:39 PM
From: Gus  Read Replies (3) of 17183
 
Sam,

Small-caps have outperformed large-caps in the first year following the end of each of the last 10 major US recessions - including the latest one from 03/2001 to 11/2001 -- since WWII based on the well-known Ibbotson Associate studies.

I think the numbers for the second year after recession also show small-caps outperforming large-caps, but then industry-specific and company-specific dynamics start coming into play with the passage of time.

<font color=blue>
SMALL CAP VS LARGE CAP STOCK PERFORMANCE
One Year After Recessions

End of SMALL CAP* LARGE CAP**
Recession 12-month Return 12-month Return SPREAD

10/31/49 31.4% 30.1% 1.3%
05/31/54 51.1% 35.7% 15.4%
04/30/58 53.5% 37.2% 16.3%
02/28/61 18.0% 13.5% 4.5%
11/30/70 12.1% 11.3% 0.8%
03/31/75 58.1% 28.3% 29.8%
07/31/80 45.1% 12.8% 32.3%
11/30/82 43.6% 25.5% 18.1%
03/31/91 27.5% 11.0% 16.5%

MEAN 37.8% 22.8% 15.0%
MEDIAN 43.6% 25.5% 16.3%
</font>
*Ibbotson Small-Cap Total Return Index
**S&P 500 Index

End of Recession dates are based NBER-defined
recessions.

Source: Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation
2002 Yearbook @2002 Ibbotson Associates, Inc.


The latest recession started in March 2001 and ended in
November 2001.

US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

nber.org
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