SRDX - SurModics - Biotech IPO Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : SRDX - SurModics - Biotech IPO

SRDX 27.44

+1.0%

Oct 31 9:30 AM EDT

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: SpecialK who wrote (27)	9/16/2003 11:18:38 PM
From: Lance Bredvold	Read Replies (1) of 84

And so I bought more at $28.29. Wonderful opportunity as far as I can see. Just finished listening to the Cordis presentation and was mightily reassured. The one place I think some Yahoo posters may be overestimating the potential of the license with Cordis is in the total market. They said that as of today 120,000 stents have been placed in patients in the US since selling began in late April. And they are now nearly caught up with demand. In the past there has been speculation and stories about doctors and patients delaying a procedure until Cypher became available. Well, if that is all true, we should have seen an extra large bubble of sales in these first 5 months and I would not guess the total market would be over 300,000 stents for the year. That is getting close to $1Billion and that would roughly equate to $.50 to $1 a share at SRDX using various assumptions about the actual royalty rate which is usually claimed to be between 1 and 2%. And presumably these people are not going to require another procedure as so many have in the past. I am guessing that earnings for SRDX just from Cypher royalties may reach a maximum of $1 per share next year and then be impacted by competition from other coaters or other brands of stents cutting into JNJ's share. There have been a few posters throwing out figures of $5B or more per year and so far I've not seen that as likely. I do find the Yahoo board to be extraordinarily good and would not purposefully choose to detract from it here. However, I don't regard my posts as of significant value--mostly just talking over the situation with myself--and if I really had something of great import to say, it would be on that thread while so many excellent posters are congregated there. Lance

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next