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Strategies & Market Trends : Bosco & Crossy's stock picks,talk area
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To: michael john stout who wrote (3996)9/17/2003 4:18:06 PM
From: Crossy  Read Replies (1) of 37387
 
Michael,
can only advise not to sell too soon. Midcap firms like JSDA (and also HANS) can have enormous leverage.. I learned that lesson with CCAM.OB 2 years ago. Nice personal care consumption good firm - annual revenues then at $45m. Bought at $0,50 sold at $1.10. Thought I was smart. I wasn't. The stock is now $7 and believe me it'S worth the $7 - still only PSR under 1.50 together with GM% of 60% or so and sales growth y/y better than 10%. That was my lesson not to sell too soon.. I hope I learned it, at least for the more established firms in my portfolio.. (NTLI, IMA etc..)

And your bitterness I can understand but I certainly cannot share your judgement on market valuation. I infer from your post you indeed think the "nuclear winter" valuation of 2001/2002 is the corrrect way to value some money loosing firms out there.. I respectfully disagree. IMHO, Valuation is an indirect concept. Not GAAP tells me where to look for value but relative valuation derived by market inputs.. So far all is relative to me - that's why I'm always bringing up intra-industry comparisons (like HANS vs. JSDA.OB for example). Usually top league firms of an industry offer the best "frame of reference". Everything else is indirectly tied to them.. If you find a disparity vs. the leader, due to lack of scale scope etc. it offers opportunity at the same time - because the company might develop a way to bridge the gap (scope, scale) and close the valuation gap as well. It's just a matter of "learning" by the company. It can be done - have seen it a thousand times..

rgrds
CROSSY
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