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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks

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To: isopatch who started this subject	9/17/2003 6:44:26 PM
From: gold$10k	Read Replies (1) of 108704

On Gold... I can't see much technically that distinguishes the current gold situation from either the one last February or especially the one in June, 2002... although it could be different this time (and I can't tell if that's <g> or not). stockcharts.com The rally from November, 2001 to June, 2002 gained 95 on the HUI from 60 to 155. The recent rally gained 95 on the HUI from 112 to 207. One difference is that there was a final exhaustion spike in the middle of May, 2002 and there has not been one in the past month to "officially" signal the end of this year's rally, although the last two weekly candlesticks are a shooting star and (so far) a hanging man. The HUI target from the triangle breakout is 217, but it reached 207 and this is not any kind of science, let alone an exact one. Even if the cup and saucer breakout points higher and the XAU reverse H&S points higher and the POG triangle breakout points higher there is nothing to indicate that it will happen this month or this year. I have no doubt that the longer term points higher, but for me the question is how big a gold stock position would I be willing to risk if HUI was as likely to drop to 160 as rise to 250. I need better odds than that to take a larger position than I already have.

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