vt. Thanks for the responses. #3 is one of the reasons
I've pared back a lot in recent weeks to a few core holds. They're basically the stocks showing the strongest relative price action. DROOY is one we both agree fits the bill.
While, I agree there's seasonality at work in the metals sector, it's also true that the influence of seasonality varies with where we are in the LT primary bull trend. If we are in primary wave 3, usually the longest and most powerful of the upward legs in any bull market? I'd expect seasonals to be less of an influence than say in primary wave 1 or 5. But, we don't have to use EW lingo.
Stan Weinstein put forward a separate and independent schematic, in the later 70s, before Prechter published the 1st ed of the EW Principal, with Frost. This is all from memory, so give me a little wiggle room on the details OK?<g>
In a bull market, Stan postulated 3 distinct phases or legs, each of which had distinct characteristics.
First came <accumulation> with a mildly upward sloping price chart. Insiders and LT professional investors are the most prominent and persistent buyers during accumulation.
Then comes <Recognition>. This is when the public first begins to participate in significant numbers. Volume is higher than during the accumulation phase, and the slope of the advance is steeper resulting in a larger %age gains during this period than in the accumulation phase.
Gains also tend to be larger than expectations developed by those aclimated via participation in the earlier accumulation period. So, this more dynamic recognition period is a time when it's easy for us to be surprised by rallies going a somewhat (though not vastly) further than we're expecting. (Let's save the final phase for another time)
For a whole bunch of reasons, that are proprietary AWA way too time consuming for me to be able to cover, I think recognition is the phase that's created the environment we're working in now. And FWIW, I think we're likely to get near HUI 220 (minimum) before there's anything more corrective than just a few days of pull back. If I thought we were done and entering a large correction now? I'd be close to 100% cash. If I'm correct, I'll wait till we get there and then take a few more soundings and see how much water is still under the keel.
Hope that clarifies a little about how I'm seeing the PM stocks, right now. Hope so, as I'm logging off and not sure how much I can respond to everyone tomorrow. Got a lot of real world stuff to do and may not be around that much.
So, please carry on folks. Get to know eachother a little better. I hope everyone will be responsive, even to those who may be a little new to you. This is a good group. So, in almost every case, I think if you make the effort to communicate? You will like what you find.
All the best,
Isopatch |
