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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Jan 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: marginmike who wrote (83947)	9/18/2003 12:31:23 PM
From: Bill Martin	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Re: a terrorist attack will galvanize his support not errode it I suspect that's entirely beside the point. The various Arab leaders, Sadam and bin Laden in particular, have been extremely poor at understanding our internal political situation. They come from a totalitarian background and seem to misjudge our public opinion and it's importance to how the government reacts every time. Osama really thought that crashing air liners into the WTC would help his cause. Of course it didn't since public opinion went the opposite direction. Sadam thought it was smart to keep resisting the weapons inspectors and now he's hiding somewhere. (And not just from us -- he'd better hope that the U.S. finds him before a lot of his countrymen do, those whose families he tortured to death.) The simple fact that they think they can influence the election in their favor by attacking the week before might induce them to do so. Iran released their hostages after the election which they were plainly trying (successfully) to influence. I wouldn't under estimate this thesis just because we think it would be counter productive to their intent. Bill

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