Everyone likes Clark now, but this is just his initial hoopla phase. It's very exciting, but Clark does has weaknesses, mainly no real domestic experience. So he will probably spike, then fade a bit and level off. But he will be in the top four candidates. In fact it may be a four way tie withjin the margin of error of various polls. But which polls matter?
Remember the first real fight that matters isn't until the first of 2004 when Kerry will attempt to convince New Hampshire voters than Dean cannot win, cannot beat Bush and is yesterday's news, and also that domestic experience matters. Kerry and Clark may be #1 an #2 in New Hampshire before it's all over. Then onto Iowa where Gephardt is the favorite.
If Dean, Lieberman, Edwards dont resonate strong during those first two primaries it will become a three-man race. I don't count Dean out necessarily because he has a lot of money and at least 10-15% support, but just predict that "a man who can beat Bush at national defense issues" will be the new prerequisite, even amongst most lefty liberals.
Lieberman may be the first to drop out, followed by Graham and Edwards. Mosely-Braun and Kucinich of course, but they dont matter. Sharpton will hang around to deliver punch-lines and rally black voters.
My final prediction, Clark has a shot to win it all if he encounters no big bumps in the road, but the compromise candidate in the end is Kerry not Gephardt. Kerry-Clark or even Clark-Kerry, but Clark has to be on that ticket. Preferably the Two Silver Star ticket. |
