Technology - Pandora's Box and Armageddon? Message Board

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Pastimes : Technology - Pandora's Box and Armageddon?

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To: Crabbe who wrote (5)	9/19/2003 6:11:11 PM
From: Crabbe	of 12

So why Pandora's Box and why Armageddon? A simple formula: The Unemployment Rate = The Unemployment Rate + The Rate of Productivity Change - The Rate of Change in Demand + The Rate of Export of Jobs. It is a certainty that we will not slow or stop the advance of technology. It is further a certainty that most employers will buy a machine that can do your job if that machine can be bought at a payback rate of less than 2 or 3 years. It is also a certainty that most corporations will soon export your job if it can be done cheaper over the Internet than it can be done in your place of work. I don't mean exporting your whole office just maybe the accounting, maybe programming tasks, maybe file maintenance. Just about any back office job. Consider the cost of telephone service today can your telephone receptionist be exported. Think a little and you can find hundreds even thousands of jobs that can be exported via the Internet. The Pandora's box is that none of us will try and stop the advances in technology, few of us will even want too. Armageddon? What happens when the unemployment rate starts increasing yet business continues to profit at high and higher rates? When unemployment reaches 10%? 15%? 20%? 50%? Even higher? The above Scenarios predicts calamity! How soon? I predict that there will be a boom in technology and business over the next few years. There is huge pent up demand as most business have limped through the recession with 1997-98 era technology. This will Necessitate hiring and the unemployment rate will drop temporarily. Businesses have reserved capital for the sake of survival. Now with the impending business recovery they will have to again for the sake of survival update all of that outdated equipment with the coexisting explosion in productivity. Many companies have 100 MHZ computers on 10 MHZ intranets. Gigahertz intranets will replace those slow intranets. 3 Gigahertz computers will replace 100 MHZ computers. Waits for loading, waits for spreadsheet processing will be cut by 95% and more. New operating systems will give greater control, New applications will give greater control, both will give greater access speeds. In short when these new technology products are in place office technology will have huge increases in productivity. Fewer employees will be needed. Layoffs will Occur. Jobs will be lost with no replacement jobs in site. At the same time these increasing advances will enable the export of office jobs even easier. Other advances onstream for the next 10 years signal even greater job loss. Perhaps the greatest advance will be "Natural Language Processing" allowing just plain talking to your computer. Others are self programming ability and genetic programming allowing programs to evolve just like nature. In any case given enough time be that 10 years (doubtful) or 100 years (certain) Just as mechanics and industrialization has essentially eliminated physical work (nobody walks behind an Ox smelling his butt all day plowing the North Forty) in the same manner computers and technology will eliminate the need for mental work soon. Rod

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