How Clark Alters the Dems' Battleground
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BusinessWeek NEWS ANALYSIS
By Lee Walczak and Richard S. Dunham
SEPTEMBER 17, 2003
businessweek.com
The retired general's Presidential bid could turn the primary race into a streamlined contest among two or three survivors
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Retired General Wesley Clark's late entry into the Democratic race will hit the party's field like a laser-guided missile. For the next few weeks, talk about the former NATO commander's long-shot bid will likely dominate Democratic politics, all but drowning out the messages of the nine other candidates vying for the right to challenge George W. Bush.
If Clark succeeds in making the transition from curiosity to top contender, he could transform the race from an inchoate pack phenomenon to a streamlined contest among two or three survivors. Democrats "are talking Clark's candidacy very seriously," says party strategist Mike Berman. "If he starts to get traction in early polls, he could take off."
PINCER MOVEMENT. Should that happen, the political battlefield will be littered with early casualties. Most at risk is Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, like Clark a decorated Vietnam vet. Kerry had positioned himself as the most credible challenger to Bush's go-it-alone foreign policy. But Clark's battlefield accomplishments easily eclipse Kerry's foxhole story.
All along, Kerry envisioned that the Establishment would embrace him as a safe and sane alternative to fiery insurgent Howard Dean of Vermont. But growing worries about Kerry's inability to connect with voters have undermined his campaign. Now, Clark is ideally positioned to seize the torch as the centrist alternative to Dean's McGovernesque candidacy. At a very minimum, that could pose a mortal danger to the Kerry campaign in New Hampshire, where he's now caught in a pincer movement between Dean on the left and Clark on the right.
Two upwardly mobile Southerners are also about to fall under Clark's tank treads. North Carolina Senator John Edwards saw his formal campaign launch on Sept. 16 overshadowed by Clark-o-mania and speculation about the general's expected Sept. 17 announcement. Clark's base in Arkansas means he'll now be in a position to run as the Dems' Dixie champion in 2004, undermining the regional strategies of both Edwards and Florida Senator Bob Graham. One or both men could feel pressure to abandon the race.
COLD TRAIL. Then there's Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, who styled himself as the Democrats' most hawkish and probusiness candidate and who also has taken heavy fire from Clark. He'll now have to compete with another centrist in the debate over business tax incentives -- and must confront an opponent with four generals' stars when the debate turns to national security.
Lieberman wasn't exactly setting the campaign trail on fire before Clark made his move. The senator's most recent role was a harsh debate critic of Dean, but the Clark candidacy now makes a Lieberman bid problematic. The general will simply assume the role of the anti-Dean in upcoming party forums.
Less affected by the Clark bombshell is the bid of Missouri Representative Dick Gephardt. Backed by strong union support, he's staking all on a win in the Jan. 19 Iowa caucuses. The one big problem with this strategy: Clark may well choose to make a strategic detour around an Iowa contest locked up by Gephardt and Dean in order to concentrate his efforts in New Hampshire and the South.
"WIDE-OPEN RACE." Indeed, New Hampshire could be tailor-made for Clark's outsider bid. Independents make up about a third of the state's primary electorate, and many of maverick Republican John McCain's supporters crossed party lines to vote for him in 2000. The same dynamic could benefit Clark if he stays viable until the Jan. 27 balloting. "All the polls in New Hampshire are soft and misleading right now," notes Linda L. Fowler, a Dartmouth College government professor and expert on New Hampshire politics. "This is very much a wide-open race."
Of course, it could be a long, cold road to New Hampshire for political tyro Clark. While he'll initially benefit from weeks of frenzied media attention, he still must answer some burning questions in the mind of political pros and voters alike, among them:
• Does he stand for anything much besides his paeans to multilateral foreign policy? To date, Clark is still a cipher on many domestic and economic issues.
• Can a general with a reputation for a prickly leadership style take the heat of political combat? Clark's sharp-elbows style has won him numerous nonfans among the military brass. Some campaign veterans wonder if this brilliant but irascible man can master retail politics in town-hall meetings and shopping mall meet-and-greets.
• Can Clark raise the money he'll desperately need to go toe-to-toe with Dean and Kerry? With so many runners in the field, party moneybags have had to dig deep and often this year. Clark will have to prove he's for real as a candidate -- and fast -- to get major financiers to shell out again.
• Will centrist Democrats coalesce around the unconventional Clark candidacy -- something the party is notoriously bad at doing -- and will enough of the newly minted Clarkies actually show up and vote in a primary process dominated by liberal activists and interest-group partisans?
Lots of questions, obviously, are swirling around the Clark candidacy. The answers should be coming in the next few weeks and with them, some guidance on whether the Dems' have another Ross Perot on their hands or an Eisenhower-type phenom.
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Walczak is BusinessWeek's Washington bureau chief and Dunham is White House correspondent |
