Did you hear from Don Hays last night recommending selling basic/raw materials and buying techs predictiting a bull market size over shadows that of last bubble, in fact he called it "distortion".
On the other hand However, Mark Leibovit on NBR "loves and holding golds, a basis thesis laid out here by ISO and others:
09/19/03: "Market Monitor"-Mark Leibovit, Chief Market Strategist for VRtrader.com
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Mark Leibovit, Chief Market Strategist for VRtrader.com. And welcome back to NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT, Mark.
MARK LEIBOVIT, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, VRTRADER.COM: Always glad to be here, Paul.
KANGAS: Well, the stock market has weathered two storms quite well this week, the one at the New York Stock Exchange and, of course, Hurricane Isabel. Do you think this is this proof that we are in a true, long-term bull market or still in just in a solid rally in a secular or long-term bear market?
LEIBOVIT: Well, you know, it`s sort of irrelevant as long as you participate either way, and it`s more philosophical than anything else. But in truth, the market has been climbing that wall of worry, Paul. So as long as it continues to ignore that so-called bad news, you have to assume the rally is still in force. So, you know, give it the benefit of the doubt until the technical indicators turn negative.
KANGAS: And who cares about the semantics, right?
LEIBOVIT: Well, sort of. I mean, you know, when we -- when I was on the show last time we talked about a 2,000 point rally mirroring the bear rallies from last year. We had a little bit more than that. So let`s see what the market tells us. If it follows the 1991 pattern, you might rally into early October and then collapse for two months. So we`re just going to have to wait for the indicators to tell us.
KANGAS: Well, on your last visit with us March 28 of this year, the Dow was around 8,145. You were basically bullish, but you said there`s a danger of the Dow going to 6,800.
LEIBOVIT: Right.
KANGAS: It didn`t, of course.
LEIBOVIT: It stopped at 7,400 and apparently that was it. We thought we could see 6,800. Now, I guess some catastrophe could hit here in the next couple of months. If we could really 2,000 points in three months, we can drop 2,000 points. But you have to wait for the numbers to tell you this. You can`t, you just can`t speculate and assume it`s going to happen.
KANGAS: Well, the one groups of stocks that you liked back in March was the gold group. And you gave us about five recommendations. Newmont Mining (NEM) was $26, now it`s over $40. Kinross Gold (KGC) was up about 20 percent and then we had about three or four others. Glamis Gold (GLG) is nicely higher by about 30 percent. Agnico- Eagle (AEM) up very comfortably. And then also I believe -- yes, RandGold & Exploration (GOLD) also up about, oh, 30 percent or so. Those were great calls and I compliment you on that. Do you still own these? Are you, sold them, taken profits, still like them, what?
LEIBOVIT: We just still like them. We love them, hold them. We`re adding other names. This is the early stages of a much bigger bull market. Other names that you might want to add to the list include Anglo Gold (AU). In the silver group perhaps Hecla (HL), Harmony Gold (HMY) and even ASA, American South African.
KANGAS: Well, let -- I mean why do you like the golds and the silvers so much here?
LEIBOVIT: Well, we`re coming out of a bit, you know, 20 year correction and there`s a chart we can put up, if you like, on the XAU Gold Index. This portrays graphically from a technician`s point of view what we`re looking at.
KANGAS: OK.
LEIBOVIT: Since 1997 we`ve created what we call a long-term reverse head and shoulders pattern. And you can see the shoulder on the left, the head in the middle and the shoulder now currently at the right. And we`re starting to take out the right side of that shoulder. The way we measure that, Paul, if you take the height from where the head is to where our break out point is, which is around 90 on the top of the shoulder, and that gives us about 50 XAU points. So around the 90 level, 95 level, we could rally up to 140, 150 in the XAU, and that tells me there`s still a lot of room coming on a multi-year chart, not on a very short-term chart.
KANGAS: Right.
LEIBOVIT: But I think we`re just beginning the move and maybe we`ll get measurements even higher than that. So it`s a very bullish pattern.
KANGAS: Well, you like a lot of the individual gold stocks. Do you own those that you`ve mentioned?
LEIBOVIT: I own some. I trade some for clients. We recommend some. So we`re all over the place. But we still basically are holding positions.
KANGAS: What about buying the bouillon itself? Will you favor that or do some of that?
LEIBOVIT: I would, absolutely. In fact, next month supposedly there`s a new ETF coming on the New York Stock Exchange.
KANGAS: Exchange traded fund, you mean?
LEIBOVIT: Exchange traded fund, ticker symbol GLD. And that`s the World Council`s Equity Gold Trust. And from what I read, they`re empowered to buy about six million ounces of gold commodity gold related products. So there`s a lot of demand coming. I think gold is going to move up in anticipation of GLD starting to trade.
KANGAS: Right. How high do you think gold can get on this move?
LEIBOVIT: Well, you know, I don`t have a specific target. I`m looking at the XAU. But I think by the end of the year you could see anywhere from 420 to 450.
KANGAS: OK.
LEIBOVIT: There`s some bulls out there that are predicting $3,000 an ounce in the next 10 years.
KANGAS: Well, all right --
LEIBOVIT: So we`ll take it as we go.
KANGAS: All right, very good. Just like last time. Buy gold and gold stocks.
LEIBOVIT: Right.
KANGAS: There you are. Thanks very much.
LEIBOVIT: Thank you.
KANGAS: You were right then. Let`s hope you continue to be right.
LEIBOVIT: Take care, Paul.Thank you.
KANGAS: My guest market monitor, Mark Leibovit, Chief Market Strategist for VRtrader.com |
