Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT)

AMAT 256.41

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Dec 19 9:30 AM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (7229)	9/20/2003 3:00:17 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) of 25522

I will also be watching interest and inflation rates in line with our "guns and butter" discussion. Yes, Cary. I think you may be going out on a bit of a limb estimating 40-50% growth for 2005, 2006 and 2007. Not that there are not good intra-industry reasons for this cycle to be somewhat longer than usual, but the macroeconomic environment bears close scrutiny as effects of stimulus package begin to wear off and massive gov debt begins to choke off capital. If we get into another theater of operations, we could see military spending/GDP levels comparable to the end of the Eisenhower administration. And now we play so many more games with hidden expenditures and hedonic adjustments artificially boosting GDP. So I really have to doubt whether we can even take the stats at face value anymore. When AG praises technology for its effects on productivity, he is, if anything, understating the case. Moore's Law is what is actually keeping GDP growth in positive territory these days. How long before the NBER and others go public with this is anybody's guess.

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