Mike,
<I remember(or at least think i do) from the last cycle that chips lead and semis along with software and job creation for that matter rise on the second leg.>
I would say in general, your statement is about right. If only for the reason that chip increases portend a requirment to fill a demand that is rising due to whatever reason. I would think that this is also due to an increase in a better economic environment.
<IF we believe this recovery to be for real, new technology demands new equipment but that follows chip recovery.>
Agreed, but the question is how much. Also, when is this going to happen. Gottfried has just posted his charts with the updated SEMI data for August, but not much has changed.
home.comcast.net
Order input is still in the 700M range - not sure when it is going to start upward. However, while semi-equip order input is not rising, chip sales are rising, slowly, but surely. This can be seen by looking at the chart:
home.comcast.net
Ever since 1995, chip sales and equipment bookings have tended to move pretty much in synchronizm, but not for the past few months - we have a divergence from the past pattern. When this will correct itself, or a new pattern emerges, I don't know.
Don |
