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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: philv who wrote (38530)9/21/2003 2:02:49 AM
From: smolejv@gmx.net  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
same "*Gasp* Huh?" reaction here...(original msg by Haim)

Message 19326099

my numbers

German GDP (purchasing power parity 2002) $2.184B. Exports 2002 $608B, with US at 10.6% of 100 gives 64B and change. Imports 2002 $487B, with US at 8.3% gives 40B and change. The balance: Germany exported $24B more to US than imported from there in 2002.

Even if we have a factor 6x here to your numbers it's still much like a fairytale:

First of all why th should not US produce and export more (and a few percents in forex would probably help) Trade balance of zero would mean increased consumer spending in Germany - not a bad thing on a second thought, assuming this means the anal-retentive Germans (savings rate at 10% and rising) would change their manners and J6P would finally give up his habit of visiting the mall both on Saturday AND sunday.

Second, lower dollar is a blessing via oil too.

One side line: about 40% plus of German exports and imports are within EU. Possibly some time in the near future one should start (finally) seeing and taking EU as one economy unit. We do not talk about TX, CA and LU exports and imports anymore either. The remaining 60% of really foreign exchange put Germany in a somewhat different light, when it comes to questions about its vulnerability. The limelights would focus on EU instead.

So, if you are still long €, Haim, dont fret (g).
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