<Don, your tabulation looks grim. Mr. Market 'sees' bookings improvement, or else price would be lower.>
Exactly! - and one of these days as they say, "the rubber is going to meet the road". Let's look at another one of your charts that shows bookings vs AMAT.
home.comcast.net
First of all, look at the 1995 to 1999 area, a period of 4 years. Average bookings were higher then than they have been for the past 29 months. Prices for AMAT were in the 3 to 10 dollar area. The last 29 months they have been in the 11 to 30 dollar area, and presently residing in the 20 to 22 area. The last 5 months has seen a "surge" in AMAT prices from the 15 to 22 area, a gain of approximately 50 percent while the bookings have gone from 757M to 721M, a decrease of 5 percent.
That's not all - look at your chart on AMAT backlog.
home.comcast.net
For the past 4 quarters, AMAT backlog has been decreasing at roughly the rate of 200M+ per quarter. Last quarter they reported a backlog of 2530, down from 2760, a decrease of 230M. From their quarter close of Jul 02, when they reported a 3300 backlog, they are down 770M, or -23 percent. Never-the-less, as noted, AMAT price is up approximately 50 percent in the last few months.
Don |
