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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 304.96

+0.4%

Dec 23 4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11732)	9/21/2003 9:21:26 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) of 95627

Don, you may find this difficult to believe but I have more faith in my short term indicators than anything Jim Brown might have to say. I really like Jim Brown's column because he talks about a lot of things I would not otherwise have gained any insight into at all but I run my own charts against the indices that we actually follow. Where it concerns the VIX and the NASDAQ New Highs I think I finally see things a bit more clearly than most analysts. Essentially as we have discussed here at length the VIX has been trending lower. It is in the "supposed danger zone below 20" but so far there has been no violent sell off. At this point I am not suggesting there will be a violent sell off but I am also not discounting that possibility. What I am saying is that the market can rise and the VIX can continue to fall but only so far before we get at least some consolidation. Where I would expect that to take place? After we see the VIX low enough to penetrate its lower Bollinger Band, essentially back below 19, perhaps as low as 18.50. This should happen on another up day in the market where the NASDAQ New Highs produce a reading that penetrates its upper Bollinger Band: investorshub.com At that point the market will turn south. I expect that will happen this week but I could be wrong. The futures look weak tonight. Ideally in the scenario I am envisioning the market makes one more run higher early this week so we will have to wait and see what actually happens. If it goes down a little first before making that run higher then that could delay the next top but one is coming even if it is not the top. I really don't think the market has finished moving higher just yet. We have huge negatives in the highly bullish sentiment but the chart action is still excellent. So I am just looking for another short term top for now. Not necessarily anything more than that. RtS

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