Hello CB, <<Back in 1998 Haim told me not to buy a house but wait for the housing market to crash>>
... I think Haim has been proven wrong and hopefully he has learned from the experience.
<<it's hubristic for a New Yorker to think he knows how the DC housing market will go>>
... but it is perhaps also necessary for a New Yorker to make an assessment on how the DC housing market will do, just as it may be wise for a DCer to try to discern the way of the New York market.
<<So it would be hubristic of me to tell you how the Chinese stock market will go, and even more hubristic of me to dabble in Chinese real estate>>
... while you may find it necessary or not to do so, I would certainly make sure I understand your logic if you did, and either accept or reject based on the merit of the assessment. This is simple survival 'must' in the financial scape.
<<China decided to nationalize all American investment in China, it wouldn't be the first time a country has done that, and it wouldn't be the first time China has done it, either>>
Yup, revolutions happen, regimes change, rules are updated, and hedging is a good habit.
<<I probably have expectations of disaster from dealing with China hardwired into my brain, and the more I interact with people from China, e.g., Yiwu, in cyberspace, the more I realize how much they hate the US. So for me, stay away>>
... pretty small sample size. But, OK, each to their own way.
<<Oil prices are completely at the whim of OPEC, just as diamond prices are completely at the whim of the South African diamond cartel.
Short term interest rates are at an historic low, but I wouldn't say they couldn't go lower. That's not completely at the whim of the Fed but almost>>
... hedge, then hedge the hedge, and then be ready to close the position or the hedge or both, at a loss if necessary.
Chugs, Jay |
